As climate change continues to push summer temperatures ever higher, the increased use of air conditioning in buildings could add to the problems of a warming world by further degrading air quality and compounding the toll of air pollution on human health, according to a new study.
Writing in a special climate change issue of the journal Public Library of Science (PLOS) Medicine, a team of researchers from the University of Wisconsin-Madison forecasts as many as a thousand additional deaths annually in the Eastern United States alone due to elevated levels of air pollution driven by the increased use of fossil fuels to cool the buildings where humans live and work.
"What we found is that air pollution will get worse," explains David Abel, the lead author of the new report and a UW-Madison graduate student in the Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies' Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment. "There are consequences for adapting to future climate change."
The analysis combines projections from five different models to forecast increased summer energy use in a warmer world and how that would affect power consumption from fossil fuels, air quality and, consequently, human health just a few decades into the future.
In hot summer weather, and as heat waves are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change, there is no question that air conditioning does and will save lives, says Jonathan Patz, a senior author of the study and a UW-Madison professor of environmental studies and population health sciences.
However, he cautions that if the increased use of air conditioning due to climate change depends on power derived from fossil fuels, there will be an air quality and human health tradeoff. "We're trading problems," says Patz, an expert on climate change and human health. "Heat waves are increasing and increasing in intensity. We will have more cooling demand requiring more electricity. But if our nation continues to rely on coal-fired power plants for some of our electricity, each time we turn on the air conditioning we'll be fouling the air, causing more sickness and even deaths."
Another senior author of the new PLOS Medicine report, air quality expert Tracey Holloway, a UW-Madison professor of environmental studies as well as atmospheric and oceanic sciences, says the study adds to our understanding of the effects of adapting to climate change by simulating the scope of fossil fuel use to cool buildings under future climate change scenarios. Buildings, she notes, are the biggest energy sinks in the United States, responsible for more than 60% of power demand in the Eastern United States, the geographic scope of the study. Air conditioning, she says, is a significant component of that electrical demand.
"Air quality is a big issue for public health," she explains, noting that increases in ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter in the air - byproducts of burning fossil fuels and known hazards to human health - will be one result of adding to fossil-fuel power consumption.
The study forecasts an additional 13,000 human deaths annually caused by higher summer levels of fine particulate matter and 3,000 caused by ozone in the Eastern U.S. by mid-century. Most of those deaths will be attributable to natural processes like atmospheric chemistry and natural emissions, which are affected by rising temperatures. However, about 1,000 of those deaths each year would occur because of increased air conditioning powered by fossil fuel. "Climate change is here and we're going to need to adapt," says Abel. "But air conditioning and the way we use energy is going to provide a feedback that will exacerbate air pollution as temperatures continue to get warmer."
The results of the new study, according to the Wisconsin team, underscore the need to change to more sustainable sources of energy such as wind and solar power, and to deploy more energy-efficient air conditioning equipment. "The answer is clean energy," says Abel. "That is something we can control that will help both climate change and future air pollution. If we change nothing, both are going to get worse."
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When Oil and Water Mix
Hydraulic fracturing of organic-rich shales has become a major industry. The commonly used term for this extraction of hydrocarbons -- fracking -- is especially intriguing. Not only does it convey the process of breaking apart rocks, but the dividing of public opinion. Fracking is simultaneously hyped as a boon to the economy and a disaster to the environment.
The geoscience community lies at ground zero for discussions of fracking. This broad and diverse group of people on the one hand understands commonalities in basic earth science, but on the other hand includes the fascinating juxtaposition of individuals propelling development and extraction, and individuals monitoring and constraining deleterious impacts. As a consequence, an acknowledged problem amongst many in the geosciences has been the lack of balanced discussions on the merits and demerits of fracking.
In their new paper for GSA Today, Daniel J. Soeder and Douglas B. Kent bridge chasms in discussions of fracking by providing a current paper summarizing environmental impacts of shale development. The article is open access, adheres to science and policy, and presents a complex problem such that even non-geoscientists can appreciate the issues. The paper provides an excellent understanding and a platform of how various potential impacts of fracking are being addressed.
China Recycling Shift an Opportunity for Minnesota
China’s recent shift in policy regarding recyclable material has many state and local governments reexamining how they manage a growing influx of plastics, glass, and other recyclables. But in Minnesota, the situation is not as dire; in 2016, nearly 2.5 million tons of recyclable materials were collected in the state. State and local regulations prohibit material collected for recycling to be put in landfills, and Minnesota is not landfilling recyclables now.
In the past, China and other foreign markets took in about 40% of the United States’ recycled material. China is now restricting these imports. Consequently, domestic markets are flooded with materials that can't be sold overseas, and prices haves plummeted.
U.S. recycling programs can no longer look to foreign countries as major buyers of our recyclables and must develop domestic markets for these materials. Minnesota has an opportunity to be a leader in such markets, as we are seeking to increase the number of businesses that use recycled materials.
Minnesota's public and private sectors have made strategic investments in recycling over the past 30-plus years. Public-sector grants and loans go to companies that use recycled materials to manufacture products. Minnesota facilities that process recycled materials have prioritized state-of-the-art sorting equipment. Focusing on local use of materials in manufacturing wherever possible has created economic development opportunities around the state.
Recycling is not just a feel-good thing; it has an economic impact. More than 260 Minnesota companies use recycled materials to manufacture their products. They employ about 18,000 people and generate approximately $3.2 billion in wages and $665 million in federal and local tax revenue.
Minnesotans wondering about shifting world markets need to stay the course — keep recycling but recycle right. While Minnesotans do better than most parts of the country at proper recycling, unrecyclable materials in recycling containers is still a huge problem. Recycled materials that are contaminated with trash and the like create inefficiencies and reduce profitability for recycling facilities.
How can you help?
- Avoid wish-cycling — only include materials your hauler will accept in your bin. Don’t just throw it in and assume a processing facility will sort it out!
- Check with your city, county or waste hauler on which items are acceptable.
- Don't put plastic bags, garden hoses, toys, syringes, or diapers in your recycling container.
- Do not use your recycling bin as a garbage overflow.
For more recycling tips for residents and businesses, visit the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency’s Recycle More webpage.
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